- SB Capital Insights
- Posts
- 📈🐂 Markets Juggle AI, Debt, and the Next Big Crypto Debut | 55th Issue - SB Capital Insights💵📈
📈🐂 Markets Juggle AI, Debt, and the Next Big Crypto Debut | 55th Issue - SB Capital Insights💵📈
SB Capital
June 09, 2025
6/9/2025
Good Morning.
The European Central Bank cut all key interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the deposit rate to 2.00%, the 8th rate cut in a year. The move highlights ongoing worries about sluggish economic growth across the eurozone.
Unemployment remains steady at 4.2%. The U.S. added 139,000 jobs in May. A slowdown in job growth can be explained by employers' hesitation as they navigate ongoing tariff concerns and an uncertain economic outlook.
Yale University has an endowment of $41 billion. The University paved the way for universities to gain exposure to private markets, particularly significant exposure to private equity. Yale had $20 billion in private equity investments in 2024. Now, as private equity fails to materialize returns in a tricky market environment, institutional investors like Yale are looking for ways to reduce exposure. Further pressure from increased taxes and decreased funding from the government has exacerbated a cash crunch, leading Yale to pursue a $2.1 billion sale of private equity investments. This sale is an important development in a growing secondary market. Yale will likely sell these investments at a discount of around 10%. Other universities with similarly structured endowments may follow suit. While this sale offers liquidity for institutions under pressure, it also opens the door for opportunistic buyers, such as secondary funds and well positioned endowments, to acquire assets at a discount.
In today’s newsletter, we will cover:
Markets
Steady Climb
Resilient Labor Market
Rate Cut Outlook
Crude Awakening
Lagging Sectors
Market Calm Returns
Small-Cap Outperformance
Another Crypto IPO: Circle Internet Group (CRCL)
What to look out for this week!
Markets
For a full breakdown of each metric and why it matters, CLICK HERE.
Steady Climb
U.S. equities posted a second straight week of gains, with major indexes rising 1% to 2%. The rally pushed markets to their highest levels in over three months, though the S&P 500 still sits just over 2% below its all-time high from earlier this year.
Resilient Labor Market
Markets rallied Friday after May’s jobs report came in slightly above expectations, with 139,000 new jobs added versus 130,000 expected. However, revisions shaved 95,000 jobs from the prior two months. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, reinforcing a picture of steady but cooling labor strength.
Rate Cut Outlook
Friday’s jobs data did little to shift rate expectations. Futures markets continue to price in a pause through July, with the first Fed cut likely coming in September. As of Friday, investors still anticipate two quarter-point cuts by year-end, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.
Crude Awakening
U.S. crude jumped over 6% this week, marking its highest level in six weeks. The rally erased recent losses and reignited momentum after two straight weeks of modest declines.
Lagging Sectors
While the broader market pushed higher, defensive names lagged. Consumer staples and utilities fell 1.5% and 1.0%, respectively—making them the week’s worst-performing S&P 500 sectors.
Market Calm Returns
Volatility continued to fade, with the VIX falling to 16.8 on Friday—its eighth weekly decline in the past nine. That’s down from 18.6 last week and well below its April 8 peak of 52.3, signaling renewed investor confidence.
Small-Cap Outperformance
Small-cap stocks surged 3.2% on the week, doubling the 1.6% gain in large caps. Despite the strong showing, small caps still trail their larger peers year to date.
Tariff Update
China and the U.S. are scheduled to hold trade talks in London on Monday morning, following mutual accusations of violating a trade agreement reached in Geneva. The discussions will focus on the future of rare earth mineral exports and China’s dominance in this critical supply chain.
Since March, the U.S. has imposed 10% tariffs on Canadian energy. This has prompted an aggressive agenda from Canada to harness its natural resources to become “an energy superpower and to build the strongest economy in the G7”. (Prime Minister Mark Carney)
Emergence of Private Market Interval Funds
We have written about multiple strategies, part of the “Democratization of private markets” that aim to give individual investors access to private investment. These range from special funds for high-net-worth individuals to highly liquid ETFs.
Interval funds are growing in popularity because they offer access to alternative investments to individual investors and create liquidity. In an interval fund, retail investors can withdraw at predetermined periods, usually quarterly.
While ETFs have also been used to provide access, they face challenges. Because ETFs must be fully liquid and priced daily, they aren’t well-suited for illiquid private assets. Interval funds offer semi-liquidity and more transparent pricing, making them a better fit.
Legacy investment managers like Vanguard are now teaming up with private asset firms such as Apollo to roll out these products. So far this year, a record 25 interval funds have launched.
These funds often come with high minimum investment requirements and fees that are steeper than those of traditional ETFs.
Another Crypto IPO: Circle Internet Group (CRCL)
(Fox Business)
Circle Internet Group (CRCL), the issuer of the USDC stablecoin, experienced a significant surge in its New York Stock Exchange debut, with shares climbing 168% to close at $83.23, well above the initial offering price of $31. This performance marked one of the strongest first-day showings for a U.S. IPO in recent years, valuing the company at approximately $18.36 billion. The IPO raised about $1.1 billion through the sale of 34 million shares, with major underwriters including JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs. Circle's USDC has facilitated over $25 trillion in transactions since its launch in 2018, underscoring its significant role in the digital asset ecosystem. The company's robust financials, including a reported $1.68 billion in revenue for 2024, highlight its growing influence in the fintech space. Circle's successful IPO reflects increasing investor confidence in stablecoins and digital assets amid a broader trend of cryptocurrency legitimization.
What to Look Out For This Week
Monday, June 9
Economic releases
U.S.: April Wholesale Inventories
Tuesday, June 10
Wednesday, June 11
Tuesday, June 12
Friday, June 13
Market sentiment
University of Michigan preliminary consumer sentiment (June)
We are two college students on a mission to immerse ourselves in the financial industry. We are eager to learn more and make new connections. Our goal is to share exciting and informative content that provides a broad picture of current events and offers valuable insights.
Founders: Ben Banchik, Zachary Singer
Additional Contributors: William Le
If you like this newsletter, check out our website for more information. Forward it to your friends!
Sign up: https://sb-cap-insights.beehiiv.com/
Want to reach out? Contact us at
We welcome feedback as it is our goal to foster discussion and different points of view as we strive to improve our work.