5/27/2025

Good Morning.

Tariffs: President Trump announced a proposed 50% tariff on the EU that will go into effect on July 9th, delayed from June 1. The delay is meant to give additional time for a trade deal to be made. This comes after the U.S. lowered tariffs on Chinese goods to 30% from 145%, and a 90-day window was set for additional talks. President Trump seems to be doubling down on pressuring Apple to produce its iPhone domestically or face a proposed 25% tariff.

The U.S. House of Representatives passed a sweeping tax and spending proposal that would make Trump’s 2017 tax cuts permanent, raise the SALT cap to $40,000, exempt tips from federal taxes, and cut $1 trillion from social programs. Following the bill’s approval, long-term Treasury yields surged; 10-year yields hit 4.63% and 30-year yields briefly topped 5.15%. The bill narrowly passed in the House and will be debated in the Senate.

Last week’s $16B U.S. 20-year bond auction saw weak demand, signaled by higher yields demanded by investors. With yields jumping to 5.047%, the highest since November 2023. The poor showing was driven by fears over rising deficits.

In today’s newsletter, we will cover: 

• Markets

  • Modest Retreat in U.S. Equities

  • 30-Year Treasury Yield Tops 5%

  • Fading Enthusiasm Hits Stocks

  • Bitcoin Extends Rally to Sixth Week

  • Gold Rebounds Sharply

  • Housing Market Stumbles in April

  • Dollar Slips to Four-Week Low

  • U.S. vs. International Stocks: YTD Snapshot

• Crypto Update

• UnitedHealthcare Update

• What to look out for this week!

Markets 

For a full breakdown of each metric and why it matters, CLICK HERE.

Modest retreat: Each of the three major U.S. indexes fell around 2.5% for the week as stocks failed to maintain momentum from the prior week’s strong gains. At Friday’s close, the S&P 500 was 5.6% below the record level that it set three months earlier. 

30-Year Treasury Yield Tops 5%: The yield on the U.S. 30-year Treasury bond surged above 5.00%, marking its highest level since 2023. The move followed the House’s approval of a new budget bill expected to widen the federal deficit. While shorter-term Treasury yields also moved higher, the long bond led the way—reaching a threshold it hasn’t sustained since 2007.

Fading Enthusiasm Hits Stocks: The S&P 500’s six-day winning streak came to an end Tuesday as optimism around a potential U.S.-China tariff truce began to wane. Selling pressure intensified Wednesday, driven by rising bond yields, with the index closing down 1.6%—its sharpest daily decline in weeks. 

Bitcoin Extends Rally to Sixth Week: Bitcoin continued its upward momentum, rising for the sixth consecutive week and briefly touching a new all-time high near $112,000 on Thursday. By Friday afternoon, the cryptocurrency was trading around $109,000—up nearly 6% for the week and far above its early April low of $75,000.

Gold Rebounds Sharply: Gold prices surged nearly 6% this week, recovering all of last week’s losses and settling around $3,360 per ounce. The rally adds to strong year-to-date gains that recently propelled the precious metal to a record high above $3,400.

Housing Market Stumbles in April: Existing home sales in the U.S. slipped 0.5% in April, defying seasonal trends as high mortgage rates and rising prices continued to weigh on buyers. According to the National Association of Realtors, it was the slowest April sales pace since 2009, highlighting persistent headwinds in the housing market.

Dollar Slips to Four-Week Low: The U.S. dollar weakened to a four-week low on Friday against a basket of major currencies, though it remained above its three-year low set on April 21. Year to date, the greenback has fallen nearly 9%, reflecting broad pressure from shifting interest rate expectations and global currency dynamics.

U.S. vs. International Stocks: YTD Snapshot

• The charts below offer a year-to-date performance heatmap of major publicly traded companies, comparing U.S. stocks (top image) with international equities (bottom image). Standout U.S. gainers include Microsoft, Netflix, and JPMorgan, while Apple and Tesla posted sharp losses. Globally, SAP, Alibaba, and Santander led gains, highlighting strength in European and Asian tech and financials.

Crypto Update

1. Bitcoin All Time High

Bitcoin (BTC) surged to an all-time high of $111,970 (CoinMarketCap) this week, although the exact catalyst behind the rally remains unclear. Many analysts speculate that Bitcoin's rise could be linked to the recent rally in gold prices, as both assets are seen as hedges against inflation and economic instability. Additionally, the expansion of the M2 money supply, which has increased liquidity in global markets, might have also played a role in fueling the demand for Bitcoin as a store of value.

Bitcoin's price experienced a downturn on Friday. This drop followed President Trump's hints of potential tariffs on the European Union, which introduced uncertainty into the market. The negative market reaction to this uncertainty led to Bitcoin relinquishing some of its previous gains.

2. Trump’s $148M Meme Coin Dinner Sparks Criticism and Market Dip

 President Donald Trump hosted an exclusive black-tie dinner on May 22 at his Virginia golf club for the top investors in his $TRUMP meme coin, who had collectively spent $148 million. Among the 220 guests were crypto executives, influencers, and former NBA star Lamar Odom, but some attendees criticized the event for poor food, no drink options beyond water and Trump wine, and Trump’s brief 23-minute appearance. Contest winners signed a giant leaderboard, while many guests were seen checking their phones as the token’s value plunged 16% during the night. The #1 coin holder, Justin Sun, a Chinese-born mogul facing SEC fraud charges, attended, raising alarms among lawmakers. The dinner fueled bipartisan outrage, with Democrats proposing a ban on presidential crypto profits and Republicans warning that the scandal could derail the GENIUS Act, a key bill for regulating stablecoins.

3. Senate Advances Major Crypto Regulation Bill

 The Senate advanced the GENIUS Act, a bipartisan bill to regulate stablecoins, with a 66–32 vote. Sixteen Democrats joined Republicans after negotiators added consumer protections, limits on tech firms issuing stablecoins, and ethics rules affecting figures like Elon Musk.

The bill, stalled earlier over concerns about Trump-linked crypto dealings and national security, now heads toward final passage after Memorial Day. Its future in the House remains uncertain, but the move signals growing momentum for federal crypto oversight.

UnitedHealth Group (UNH) Stock Faces Continued Pressure 

UnitedHealth Group is the largest U.S. health insurer, reporting $400.3 billion in revenue in 2024. It has historically been a defensive blue-chip stock with steady growth, strong cash flow, and a central role in U.S. healthcare, making it popular among institutional investors. 

The company has recently faced mounting challenges.

• Regulatory Scrutiny: UnitedHealth is under criminal investigation by the U.S. Department of Justice over its Medicare Advantage billing practices.

• Leadership Turmoil: CEO Andrew Witty abruptly resigned, fueling uncertainty about future direction.

• Financial Uncertainty: The company withdrew its 2025 outlook amid rising medical costs.

Shares are down nearly 50% year-to-date, wiping out over $300 billion in market cap and making UNH one of the worst-performing stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average this year.

Analysts maintain an overweight rating, anticipating a long-term recovery. However, prolonged regulatory investigations and rising medical costs could cause the stock’s downturn to continue.

• HSBC: Downgraded with a price target of $270, citing concerns over rising medical costs and regulatory investigations.

• JPMorgan: Maintains an overweight rating; lowered price target to $405 from $525.

• Morgan Stanley: Maintains an overweight rating; lowered price target to $374 from $563, expecting a recovery in 2026. 

What to Look Out For This Week (May 27–31)

Monday, May 27
U.S Markets Closed – U.S. equity and bond markets closed for Memorial Day.

Tuesday, May 28
Earnings:

Zscaler (ZS) – Cybersecurity spend and enterprise demand signals

HP Enterprise (HPE) – IT infrastructure and cloud spending trends

Wednesday, May 29
Earnings:

Salesforce (CRM) – Key read on enterprise software and AI-driven growth

Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS) – Consumer spending health

Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) – Retail pricing power and margin outlook

Thursday, May 30
Economic Data:

Initial Jobless Claims – Labor market direction

Q1 GDP (Second Estimate) – Growth momentum check

Earnings:

Best Buy (BBY) – Durable goods demand and consumer electronics

Dell Technologies (DELL) – Enterprise and consumer hardware outlook

Friday, May 31
Economic Data:

April PCE Inflation – Fed’s preferred inflation gauge; critical for rate outlook

Chicago PMI (May) – Manufacturing activity pulse

Fed Speakers:

Christopher Waller (Governor)

Raphael Bostic (Atlanta Fed President)

We are two college students on a mission to immerse ourselves in the financial industry. We are eager to learn more and make new connections. Our goal is to share exciting and informative content that provides a broad picture of current events and offers valuable insights.

Founders: Ben Banchik, Zachary Singer

Additional Contributors: William Le

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